Is Blogging Even Fun?

I just love provactive ideas because they make me think. Here is an excerpt from an longish article which I highly recommend:

Reading online does not seem to me to be a pleasure in itself but a response to irritation. That is, it is not like eating an ice cream cone; it is like scratching an itch. I am only reporting on my own feelings here, of course, but while I am doing so, let me report a further kink in them. Between us, my boyfriend and I subscribe to more than a dozen magazines, and if I pick one up, I know instantly that I am goofing off. Online reading, however, fails to set off my leisure detection system.

I don't think this does agree with my expereinces, but maybe I'm an outliner. I mean, I was an English major, and I don't read fiction very much. I nearly always read in an intense fashion, probing for ideas and noting novel language use. For example, I was struck by comparing internet reading to scratching an itch. However, most of my itches don't hurt. In fact, to me it feels good scratch all sorts of itches. I think part of the reason my life is so great is that I love and nurture my own compulsions and have founds ways to work them into my daily life.

I agree more with this:

An action movie leaves the viewer juiced; a novel may leave the reader wistful. But reading blogs, in my experience, leaves me more addled and nervous than when I began.

I often don't read much to relax. I read to occupy my time, to understand the world, and to sharpen my mental accuity. That process takes work, but is a kind of work I often love. Well, at least, it is what I feel compelled to do . . .

I Sure Don't Like Tyrants

What I don't understand about Robert Mugabe is why did he ever bother with an election in the first place if he was never going to accept the result. In a wonderful testiment to tyranny he says

We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X. How can a ballpoint fight with a gun?

How, indeed. Again, then why pay for ballots and presumably pens so people can mark X? Just another example of government waste in this world. And government waste makes me sick. As does evil.

This One Goes Out to the One I love

I thought this clip would serve as a good change of pace from all of the politics.



The clip serves other functions, though. (1) It expresses the longing in my heart. This song just captures for me the special feeling of reaching out to absence of someone you love and wishing the gesture of your thoughts and words could somehow reach them. Absence, distance, love, memory, passion. Good stuff. (2) I think this illustrates clearly another sense in which the internet does not destroy context. The internet has a perfect and vast memory. Even artifacts, like this video from 1983 survive to be revived for blog posts, or even just simple enjoyment. The age of networks and information fidelity is the great preserver of context. (3) To give a good tie in to the title, the internet is the one I love. And this one goes out to it. . .

More of the Clip!

The Saga of the video clip continues:



As important as local politics might be, I keep tracing the history of this clip because it shows what I think is great about our age.

Currently this clip has 102,000 views already and it has been on youtube for only two days. Readers of my blog would have had this video scooped by a few days, but I really am not trying to be in the habit of being a source of breaking news.

McCain's Athiest Problem?

With that provactative statement, I link you to the post by Nate at 538 with the explaination.

Here's something to think about:

the younger generation is less religious than the older generation. 19 percent of those born after 1977 say they are atheist or agnostic, as compared with 11 percent of Boomers (born 1946-1964), and 5 perecnt of pre-Boomers (born before 1946).

Maybe one day we'll see openly atheist politicans. That appears to be the final boundry which no politican has crossed (actually, come to think of it, are there any lesbians in Congress?)

I mean, it's not my way (or really most non-believers way) to fight for pan-athiesm, but it's still something I would like to see one day.

Boo GOP. Boo.

It seems today was bash Republican day on my blog. I should do this again sometime.

Larison Counters

Larison is not impressed with the idea of the Obamican movement.

He really is so delightfully contrarian. I'm glad to have him and his perspective on my reading list.

Key quote:

What is notable is how concentrated the Obamacon phenomenon is among bloggers, columnists, academics and conservative elites. Or perhaps a better way to put it is “limited to” these people, since there is no groundswell of pro-Obama sentiment on the right.

Wow. Call me an elite, I guess. He does concede this however:

As I’m sure others have noted, there are fewer self-described Republicans out there, so there are a lot of former Republicans, some of whom may be supporting Obama, thus increasing his numbers among independents.

Almost anyone remaining in today's GOP probably doesn't follow politics much or isn't capable of rational criticism of the Party. Either way, they wont be convinced by anyone to vote Democrat.

Boo Istook. Boo.

Again, Oklahoma making the news for the right reasons.

Boo Fox News. Boo.

Oh, and another reason I'm not voting Republican: I'm tired of all of all of the racism. I don't care if its disguised as a joke or a lack of knowledge. If you're trying not be racist, you'll be careful about what you say. But Fox News keeps on pushing forward

Another image comes to my mind. Looking at the stage of the GOP primary debates the one thing that impressed me was the fact I was looking at a white male convention (I certainly was not impressed with the ideas or speaking abilities of the candidates).

Here's the pillars holding together the current Republican Party: hatred, racism, prejudice, war, torture, authoritarianism.

There's nothing in this for me.

Boo McCain. Boo.

And so we see McCain is not a fan of habeas corpus, not when it has the slightest tangential relationship to his important wars. Erroding civil liberties appears to also be one of those important, transcendent issues McCain can agree with the President on.

It seems he is planning to make this an election issue. A candidate for President of the Unites States is making a ruling in favor of habeas corpus an election issue. How dare those extremist, liberal judges, some appointed by Republican Presidents, rule that the government must show a reason to detain people.

How is anyone stupid enough to be rally behind this as an issue? But some will, almost all with an "R" on their voter registration cards. Hmm. I really like the information age. I don't like the age of neo-conservatism, though. Or whatever the hell this authoritarian, anti-American mess is.

And this guy has a 45% chance of being President?

Someone Posted the Video!

As I predicted someone did post the clip from Meet the Press of McCain saying he agreed with Bush on all transcendent and important issues. I love the internet. This truly is the greatest time to be alive.



Hearing this in context, though, I see that McCain really only means foriegn policy and in fact he says that Bush and he disagree on some domestic issues, some.

This all takes some of the bite out of my remarks, but I am sticking with McCain saying that he agrees with Bush on anything important. Does McCain not think domestic issues are important? Is war mongering the only important and transcendent thing a president can accomplish? If he has a different plan for Bush on economics, and particularly the concentration of wealth, is that only because these things are unimportant? So, do we pander on things that are unimportant so we build the political capital to fight our highly important wars?

Or is he, as his voting record suggests, actually with Bush 95% of the time? Even if he isn't trapped by his own rhetoric, which I think he is, I am still looking for what part of his proposals alters the course of Bush economics, war policy, or diplomacy. I think I'll be waiting a good long time.

Something to Play Around With

If you want to have some fun playing around with numbers, then go here and play with the spreadsheet to what might happen with the popular vote.

People often learn best by playing and doing, so this little exercise has increased by confidence in thinking about the popular vote. If anything, I think the default turnout numbers for Obama may be low, Nadar's portion of the Democratic vote high, and McCain's lead over Independents tenuous. Using my assumptions, I have Obama winning the popular vote by 10 percent.

I am now going so far to project Obama will win the popular vote. Not that matters, because, I am still holding to McCain having a substantial chance of winning the Electoral College. How substantial? I'm going to agree with the number at 538.com and say about 45%.

I have no idea what kind of model Nate is using to show the popular vote as a coin flip, but I think it is missing some variables that are happening on the ground. The simpler model, Nate's spreadsheet game, appears to be mapping reality better in this instance. This is counter-intuitive, but often is the case. I personally am almost obsessed with simplifying models.

It's often not about building the most complex model. Instead, it is a matter of finding the right model.

Good Bye GOP

If anyone asks why I'm not voting Republican in spite of claiming to be more or less conservative, I am just going to forward them this piece by Glenn Greenwald.

Good, Some Bad News

Ahhh . . . Daniel Larison does me the favor of giving me some bad news:

As frustrating as it is to watch, because it often yields horrible results later, presidential elections turn not just on which candidate has shown “leadership,” but on which candidate can create the illusion that he has shown leadership when, in fact, he has done nothing particularly worthwhile. Thus Bush sold himself as a governor who worked well with the opposition (never mind that his position was constitutionally very weak), and then won re-election on the basis of perpetuating a war he had started. Bizarrely, Bush’s remarkable inability to adapt and his tendency to embark on ill-conceived crusades was taken as proof of deeply-held conviction and a willingness to act, which somehow proved that he was more of a “leader” than the overly deliberative Kerry. Looking at the general election match-up between McCain and Obama, I get a cold, dreadful feeling of deja vu.

Postprandial

postprandial

[adjective]

Following a meal.

I find it difficult to get postprandial work done because I make portions that are too large.

Long Live the Republic!

Oh YEAH! The Supreme Court gets it right! Yeeeeeah!

There's been a lot of good news lately.

I'm disappointed in Chief Justice Roberts. I didn't expect any better from Scalia, Thomas, and Alito, though. Now that we've caught back up with where England was in 1215, maybe we can move our rights discourse back to the the 20th century.

Update
Bush has declared that he will obey the decision.

Where did all the bluster go? Where's the cowboy swagger? Andrew Jackson once said of a Supreme Court decision, "John Marshall has made his decision; let him enforce it now if he can." Bush isn't going that far. The courts and the people have checked the executive. The Republic is saved and James Madison's genius still shows itself to this day.

Update II
I like how Glenn Greenwald explains it.

A New New Russia?

I like reading the news about other countries. I read international news with a far great humility than domestic news and see the developments as an interesting puzzle.

So riddle me this about Russia, are they moving back to respecting international norms of rights? Will the Medvedev adminstration be different from Putin's?

From AFP :

In an apparent bid to distance himself from the authoritarian trends seen in Russia in recent years Medvedev also vowed to build a freer society.

"Our immutable course will be the creation of a free and responsible society, the defence of human rights, freedom of the press and of speech and, of course, supremacy of the law," he said.

In recent weeks Medvedev has struck down a restrictive media law and the country's top court has cancelled a probe into a media rights group, but analysts say this barely dents Putin's legacy of restricting free speech.

Medvedev also vowed to "use all means available" to fight racism and xenophobia.

Rule of law, free-press, using all means to fight racism? What is Russia coming to? What's next, a fair election?

You just never know about another nation. Medvedev could be the John Adams or George Washington of Russia. Or this all could be a mask. Either way, I know I'll be following this story with great interest.

Is McCain Going to Lose?

McCain is now trying to find a way to not be painted by team Obama as Bush's third term. He goes as far to accuse Obama and his communication team of using this strategy to avoid an honest debate. The problem with McCain's rhetorical tactic is that he isn't just against the Obama communications team. He's against anyone with an internet connection willing to either look for the facts or forward the facts to someone else.

In this case, I am a person willing to forward information and Glenn Greenwald is someone with the straight dope. Money quote, from an episode of Meet the Press:

And on the transcendent issues, the most important issues of our day, I've been totally in agreement and support of President Bush.

Ah, I see now: McCain represents Bush's third term only on important issues. As long as it is something competely unimportant, McCain can be quite different than Bush. Thanks for clearing that up.

Now, I know the internet was around and was used when Kerry lost to Bush. But I believe that we have reached a tipping point with network technology which will permenantly alter the way elections are run. A far greater swath of the populace uses political blogs for information and opinion than they did in 2004. Also, this is the first YouTube Presidential election. My heart fills with glee with the knowledge that someone can find the video clip of what McCain said on Meet the Press and that it can soon be a viral rebuke of his attempt to reposition himself now that the primaries are over. And you know what, I bet it soon will be.

This is the post-modern politics of the 21st Century. My best friend believes that one of the problems with post-modernity is that it takes away context. I believe that in cases like the mediums of post-modernity trump the mediums of Modernity again and again.

In the era of centeralized television, McCain would easily get away with this attempt to move to the middle after pandering the last few years to the right. This is because traditional television is a top-down medium with a small amount of people making production decisions.

I wrote something about Obama's clash with the Clintons that I think applies here:

In the past, if you noticed a contradiction, you had to strew over it alone. You might have been able to tell a few friends, but it was much harder for your message to reach a critical mass.

This is not case anymore. We don't have to sit back and hope that the "important people" see what we see and report on it through the traditional media.

What makes matters worse is that television production teams are very insular and prone to group-think and gossip-mongering. While it would be possible for these teams to do the legwork and show McCain's -- um, shift -- their limited resources are devoted to the latest scandle, or perhaps talking about the candidate's wives or lapel pins.

With television you have a few voices and those voices are appealing to the lowest common denominator, or (even worse) what a small number of elietes believe the lowest common demoninator to be. With the internet there are many voices, many producers of content, with a vibrant potential market-place to pick the best stories from. The internet isn't creating ADD democracy. Instead, it is the best hope to stop it.

My predition is that on the message-front team McCain will lose. People going into the voting booth will see him as the Bush's third-term.

In spite of this, I feel McCain still has a substantial chance to win the election. I've written before about why I think Obama will most likely lose Ohio. Sorry, racism isn't done with in the swing states. But there are ways Obama can win the election without Ohio. Also, Obama is gaining in the 538.com regression analysis, which has been more accurate at handicapping races this year than any polling service. A chart is below, but still visit 538



Honestly, is McCain going to lose? Am I really going to get to rub this into my dad's face?

Addlebrained

addlebrained

[adjective]

stupid or confused.

It's just nice to have another way to call someone stupid. Be sure to call three people addlebrained today.